Opinion: Why Now?

 


“An Expedition of the Century - and a Question of Timing”

By Richard Hardenburg
British Salmoa Times Correspondent, Istanbul, Turkey

The Kremlin calls it The Expedition of the Century. The Severnaya Zemlya Expedition, we were told, seeks to revive the daring of the early cosmonaut era, epitomised by Yuri Gagarin. Its aim is to venture into the high Arctic during the Polar Night, face extreme risks, and return with discoveries of scientific significance. The ambition is clear. The question remains: why now?

Geopolitics

European geopolitics have shifted markedly since the Russo-Valkarian war began in 2014. The front line remains largely static but violent. Both sides suffer heavy losses, and while Valkaria benefits from Western support, Russia produces its own artillery at a scale reminiscent of the Second Great War.

These circumstances form the backdrop to the expedition’s timing. They do not, however, explain it.

Severnaya Zemlya

Severnaya Zemlya is a remote Arctic archipelago, flanked by the Kara Sea to the west and the Laptev Sea to the east. At this time of year, it lies in darkness under the Polar Night. Temperatures fall between minus thirty-five and minus forty-five Celsius, reaching minus fifty or more with wind chill.

The islands are largely uninhabited and subjected to strong winds, sometimes reaching hurricane force. Having witnessed extreme cold in the Himalayas, I can attest to its effect on the human body. Against this setting, the question is unavoidable: why now, and not during the brief Arctic summer?

The Expeditioners

Based on leaked personal commentaries, even the Russian organizers harbored concerns regarding the readiness of the expeditioners. Their apprehension is justified.

Specialized winter gear, for instance, is insufficient for Arctic survival. Success requires Cold Weather Field Training, which includes the vital skill of establishing "Survival Camps" on moving ice. Even when a ship serves as one’s primary base, one must prepare for the eventuality of being stranded. Furthermore, firearm training is a mandatory requirement for anyone stepping onto the ice—a grim necessity for defense against polar bear attacks.

But the deficiencies go deeper.

Standard protocol demands at least two months of Marine and Survival training to achieve certification. Beyond this, a full month is typically dedicated to team integration and drills with the icebreaker crew to ensure seamless cooperation under pressure. Then, there is the matter of medical certification.

In Russia, the Medical Commission is notoriously strict. One could be the world’s preeminent scientist, yet be disqualified by a minor heart murmur or even a decaying tooth. These rigorous standards exist because, in the Russian view, evacuation during the Polar Night is "an act of war against the elements."

Yet, as of now, and despite these exacting specifications, every expeditioner— national and international alike— is approved. Preparations continue regardless. Among the team, there was a growing sense that time itself had become the primary adversary, echoing Marcus Aurelius’s reflections on the nature of urgency. The Anomaly under investigation appeared to demand immediate attention, even at the cost of basic survival.

Timing, Not Accusation

To be clear, I do not suggest political motives, nor that any nation seeks to exploit the Anomaly for purposes it does not yet understand. Such claims are beyond what can be responsibly stated.

What can be said is that the timing is unusual. Launching an expedition of this scale in the depths of the Polar Night is remarkable and invites scrutiny. Perhaps the explanation is straightforward: some scientific opportunities do not wait for better conditions. Nature, unlike geopolitics, observes its own schedule.

Conclusion

The question persists: why now?

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